PRLog (Press Release) – Mar 29, 2011 – On a global level we see risks to all three core shipping sectors (container and dry and liquid bulk), with overcapacity and a drop in demand continually threatening to push down rates and impinge on lines' profits. With regards to Hong Kong's shipping sector, we believe that growth will remain strong over the year ahead with container throughput at the Port of Hong Kong expected to grow by around 7% over 2011. Over the long term, Hong Kong is well placed to benefit from growth in intra-Asia trade volumes. However, measures will be needed to ensure the port is able to maintain its competitiveness with rival maritime centres such as Shanghai and Singapore in the battle for shipping traffic.
Headline Industry Data
?? 2011 port of Hong Kong tonnage throughput forecast to grow 4% following projected growth of 10% in 2010. ?? 2011 port of Hong Kong TEU throughput forecast to grow 7.4% following projected growth of +11.8% in 2010. ?? 2011 trade growth forecast at +4.95%.
Key Industry Trends
Container lines go for broke in search of intra-Asia growth: Following several weeks of speculation, news broke in January 2011 that Orient Overseas Container Line (OOCL) had placed an order for two 8,888 20-foot equivalent unit (TEU) vessels. The move follows a statement from Stephan Sui-Kow, OOCL's director of corporate planning, earlier in December 2010 that the line was 'looking at 8,000TEU [vessels] and up to 13,000TEU'. The size of the vessels ordered highlights the line's continued focus on transpacific and intra-Asia services, which typically utilise mid-sized vessels.
Expansion trend also seen among terminal operators: Hutchison Port Holdings (HPH), the terminalsoperating arm of Hong Kong-based company Hutchison Whampoa, has announced goverment technology plans to list its interests in southern China and Hong Kong in Singapore, a strategy that will reportedly enable the newly formed company to expand its container-ports-related businesses in the region. HPH intends to set up a new company, the Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HPH Trust), which will take over all of its operations in Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta in southern China.
Port of Hong Kong battles to retain regional market share: A coalition of maritime industry groups including Hong Kong shipowners claims that Hong Kong's status as a shipping hub is being eroded by the recent growth of neighbouring centres such as Shanghai and Singapore. A spokesperson for the alliance said: 'If the situation does not change, the development of Hong Kong's maritime industry, as well as its economic development and prosperity, will be hampered'. The Hong Kong government has already taken steps to stimulate shipping growth at the port, having recently introduced measures to reduce a series of maritime-related fees at the port by a combined US$5.9mn a year.
Key Risks To Outlook
With the fortunes of Hong Kong's shipping sector inexorably linked to those of the Chinese economy, BMI sees risks to our forecasts to the upside as well as the downside in 2011. BMI has recently upgraded its forecasts for Chinese GDP growth in 2011 from 7.5% to 8.3%, and further revisions may occur should Beijing choose to renege on plans to cut money supply, thereby sparking a further import boom. Alternatively, there is a risk that the slowing in China's exports will be greater than expected, which will again have an impact on transhipment hubs such as Hong Kong. At present BMI forecasts Chinese exports to grow by 4.5% in 2011 in real terms. However, a further slowdown in the economies of the eurozone or the US may lead to a further slowing in trade, and hence a reduct android application ion in shipping volumes.
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